With just two rounds left to play in the 2024-25 Ninja A-League campaign, the Premiers Plate, the Golden Boot, and the last two spots in the Finals Series are still up for grabs as we get set for a dramatic conclusion to the regular season.
Melbourne City are leading the pack and could finish the campaign unbeaten; having already claimed the league’s all-time record unbeaten streak, Michael Matricciani’s side have extended their run to 21 games without defeat but, remarkably, have not yet claimed the Premiership title due to the phenomenal form of local rivals, Melbourne Victory.
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Meanwhile, two CommBank Matildas are locked on 12 goals leading the Golden Boot race; City’s Holly McNamara and Victory’s Emily Gielnik will look to use the final two rounds of the regular season to take the honour outright, with any more goals scored by either player capable of lifting their respective teams to the Premiership title.
City and Victory are two of four teams with their Finals Series status confirmed, alongside Adelaide United and Western United, while Central Coast Mariners, Canberra United and Brisbane Roar slug it out in a three-team battle for the remaining two slots in the top six.
With so much still to play for, this is the state of play ahead of the final two rounds of the regular season, in the run home to the Finals Series.
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The Premiership
Just two teams remain in the hunt for the Premiers Plate and the fate of the trophy could be decided within five hours on Friday night, as City and Victory kick off Round 22 against Newcastle Jets and Central Coast Mariners respectively.
City host the Jets at AAMI Park in the first game of the weekend, with kick-off scheduled for 4.50pm AEST.
City have never lost to Newcastle in the Ninja A-League and should their imperious record against the Jets continue with a win on Friday, the league leaders will extend their gap at the top to five points.
It will then come down to how Victory respond against Central Coast on Friday night. Anything less than a win against the Mariners in Gosford would confirm City’s status as Premiers in 2024-25.
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Should City lose to the Jets and Victory beat the Mariners, Jeff Hopkins’ side would jump ahead of their local rivals to the top of the table.
If City and Newcastle share the spoils in a draw and Victory beat Central Coast, the two sides would be locked level on 50 points – but City’s superior goal difference (+27 to Victory’s +18) would keep the current leaders in top spot.
On this week’s episode of Dub Zone, A-Leagues commentator Teo Pellizzeri and Sydney FC legend Teresa Polias assessed the current state of play in the Premiership race.
“The pressure is on this weekend,” Pellizzeri said. “Because Melbourne City played first, so they can open the gap back out.
“Melbourne Victory are away at the Central Coast, and this has been a very hard-fought (matchup this season).”
Victory and the Mariners have already met twice this season: the two sides drew 1-1 in Unite Round, before Victory notched a 2-0 win over the Mariners in Round 16 thanks to a brace from Emily Gielnik.
“They’re two teams that will know each other incredibly well as a result,” Pellizzeri added. “But if City beat Newcastle, Victory has to win to take it to the final day.
“So, how tough is Mariners away (going to be) for Victory?”
“Very,” Polias replied. “And at the moment, the Mariners are on a high.
“They’ve gotten better results lately. They’re playing better football. So this is a really tough fixture for Victory – but I think one that they need before finals, really.”
Should City fail to wrap up the Premiers Plate this weekend, it would provide the chance for the reigning Premiers to replicate the circumstances of their 2023-24 triumph on the final day of the regular season.
In 2023-24, City travelled to Perth to take on Glory at Macedonia Park and pipped Sydney FC to the post in the Premiership race. This season, City return to Western Australia to take on Perth at the Sam Kerr Football Centre in Round 23.
Remaining fixtures
Melbourne City: Newcastle Jets (H), Perth Glory (A)
Melbourne Victory: Central Coast Mariners (A), Brisbane Roar (H)
Three teams remain in fight for finals football
With Melbourne City, Melbourne Victory, Adelaide United and Western United all locked in as Finals Series combatants, the final two slots in the top six are up for grabs with seventh-placed Brisbane Roar within six points of Central Coast Mariners in fifth, and two points of sixth-placed Canberra United.
Brisbane occupied a place in the top six from Round 3 to Round 20 but a horrid run of form saw Alex Smith’s side tumble out of the Finals Series standings at the end of Round 21. Brisbane have lost seven of their last nine games and approach the final two rounds of the season on a five-game losing streak.
Up until Round 21, Brisbane had benefited from Canberra’s inability to capitalise on their opportunity to jump into the top six. United drew three games in a row, and then lost their next three before a Round 21 win over Perth Glory away from home that finally led to Antoni Jagarinec’s side dumping the Roar out of the top six.
Canberra now sits two points ahead of Brisbane with two games to play.
Central Coast’s spot in the top-six is all but secured; the Mariners need just one point from games against Victory and Newcastle Jets to confirm their Finals Series status.
Brisbane aren’t out of the race just yet and can keep their season alive this weekend as they play host to bottom-placed Western Sydney Wanderers on Sunday afternoon.
The Roar have a far superior goal difference to Canberra (+6 to -6) with two rounds to play and with goal difference being the decisive factor that separates two sides locked on points, it could prove pivotal by the end of Round 23.
Remaining fixtures
Central Coast Mariners: Melbourne Victory (A), Newcastle Jets (A)
Canberra United: Wellington Phoenix (H), Western Sydney Wanderers (A)
Brisbane Roar: Western Sydney Wanderers (H), Melbourne Victory (A)
The Golden Boot race
Holly McNamara and Emily Gielnik lead the Golden Boot tally on 12 goals apiece – but with three players locked level on nine goals with two games to play, a late charge from Fiona Worts, Sharn Freier or Tameka Yallop cannot be ruled out in a race that’s set to go the distance.
Golden Boot race
=1st: Emily Gielnik, Melbourne Victory (12 goals)
=1st: Holly McNamara, Melbourne City (12 goals)
=3rd: Fiona Worts, Melbourne Victory (9 goals)
=3rd: Tameka Yallop, Brisbane Roar (9 goals)
=3rd: Laini Freier, Brisbane Roar (9 goals)
The Dub Zone panel was divided when tasked with picking a winner. On one side of the divide, Polias favoured City and Matildas star McNamara due to City’s favourable fixtures against the Jets and Perth Glory.
But on the other side was Pellizzeri, who speculated whether Victory’s relentless push to catch City in the Premiership race could provide Gielnik greater motivation to find the goals her team needs to stay in the hunt.
“I’m just basing it on fixtures alone, and I’ve got to give the nod to Holly Mac, who I think will take out the Golden Boot,” Polias said.
“You say that,” Pellizzeri responded, “(but) I think Gielnik will do it, because if Melbourne Victory need to chase goal difference on the final day against the Brisbane Roar, or if it’s a total dead rubber for both teams, I can potentially see Gielnik finding one or two more.
“If neither of them score – I know Holly McNamara scored last time City played Newcastle – but if neither of them score in these final couple of games, is a tie a fair result? Or do you think one striker or the other has a better claim to the Golden Boot over the course of the season?”
“Individually, I think they’re both in different stages of their careers. So for Holly Mac, it’d be her first and for Gielnik, it’s like a resurgence. She’s come back (to the Ninja A-League) and I think it would mean a lot to both of them for different reasons.”
Gielnik last won the Golden Boot in 2020-21 with 13 goals for Brisbane Roar.
