Ahead of this weekend’s Isuzu UTE A-League Semi-Final first leg between Melbourne Victory and Wellington Phoenix, Opta data identifies the underlying numbers, contrasting styles and the key men in a mouth-watering showdown.
The 2024 Isuzu UTE A-League Semi-Finals are set, with Sydney FC taking on reigning premiers and defending champions Central Coast Mariners while Melbourne Victory face Wellington Phoenix for a place in the Grand Final on May 25.
Victory will host the first leg of that latter tie on Sunday, having overcome neighbours
Melbourne City in a penalty shoot-out last week to keep their hopes of a fifth Championship alive.
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Their opponents, meanwhile, must pick themselves up from the disappointment of narrowly missing out on the Premiership as they look to cap their best-ever regular season with silverware.
But what can supporters expect when the teams line up at AAMI Park? Ahead of the first leg, we trawled through the Opta data to look at both teams’ underlying numbers, playing styles and the key ones to watch.
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The underlying numbers
Eleven points separated the second-placed Phoenix from the third-placed Victory in the regular season, but that may not tell the entire story.
Wellington overperformed their expected goals (xG) figures throughout the regular season, netting 42 times from a total of 40.51 xG, but it was on the defensive side of things where they really defied the numbers, conceding just 26 goals from a figure of 39.41 expected goals against (xGA).
That huge differential of 13.41 was more than double that of the team with the next-best defensive performance, with Macarthur FC shipping 48 goals from 54.07 xGA (a differential of 6.07).
Victory also conceded 4.72 goals fewer than the data suggests they might have expected to (33 goals conceded from 37.72 xGA), though they did underperform their attacking numbers by scoring 43 times from 46.26 xG.
Wellington’s defensive performance was about more than luck, though. According to Opta’s expected goals on target (xGoT) model, Phoenix goalkeeper Alex Paulsen prevented a stunning 14.2 goals this term, conceding 26 times from 40.2 xGoT faced.
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He might have plenty of work to do across their Semi-Final tie, with Victory outshooting their opponents by a cumulative 116 shots this season, their most in a single campaign since Opta records began in 2012-13. Their shooting accuracy of 49.6%, meanwhile, is also their highest in a campaign since 2018-19 (49.8%).
Tony Popovic’s team will hope to make the most of home advantage in the first leg, having only lost one of their last six A-League games at AAMI Park (three wins, two draws).
The Phoenix, meanwhile, are winless in their last four trips to Australia (two draws, two defeats), though their total of 21 points won on their travels through the regular season put them third in the A-League, behind the Mariners (26) and Western Sydney Wanderers (23).
Sunday’s game will be just the second finals meeting between the teams, and Victory will have fond memories of the previous encounter, winning 3-1 in an Elimination Final back in 2019.
A clash of styles
Delving deeper into the Opta data, we can predict something of a clash of styles.
Indeed, while Popovic’s hosts will look to press with intensity, a more patient approach can be expected from Giancarlo Italiano’s Phoenix.
To illustrate this point, Wellington’s average passing sequence duration of 11.1 seconds is the longest of any A-League team in 2023-24, while the Victory’s figure of 8.7 seconds is the third shortest, with only Perth Glory and Sydney FC (both 8.4 seconds) more hurried in possession.
Victory have only scored one goal following a sequence of 10 or more passes this term, the fewest in the A-League, while the Phoenix have netted the most with eight.
Curiously, that is despite the Victory averaging just a 48% possession share to Wellington’s 51%.
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At times, the Phoenix have failed to combine their patience with penetration. Italiano’s team have recorded the league’s second-highest passing accuracy this campaign (85%, behind only Brisbane Roar) but have also averaged fewer penalty-area entries per 90 minutes than any other team (22.9).
The same categorically cannot be said of the Victory, who have fired off 476 shots to Wellington’s 303 this season.
On average, each shot recorded by the Victory has been worth 0.1 xG to 0.13 for the Phoenix, suggesting a tendency to shoot on sight rather than remain patient in search of more high-quality opportunities.
With much of the Phoenix’s best work been done in deep build-up situations, expect Victory to harass them from the off.
Victory have forced 241 high turnovers to Wellington’s 143 this term, while the Phoenix have committed a league-high 17 errors leading to a shot this campaign, the most in the A-League.
That more high-octane approach has perhaps made the Victory more adept at chasing games, with Popovic’s men winning a league-high four matches after conceding first in 2023-24.
Wellington, though, are one of just two teams (alongside the Mariners) yet to lose a game when opening the scoring in 2023-24 (12 wins, two draws). The first goal, then, could be crucial on Sunday.
The key men
We’ve already praised Paulsen’s superhuman efforts between the sticks for Wellington, but who might be best placed to test him on Sunday?
In Bruno Fornaroli, Victory boast the most prolific player featuring in the finals, with his 18 A- League goals this term only bettered by Perth’s Adam Taggart (20).
The Uruguayan-born Socceroo also has plenty of history with Wellington, scoring six goals in six career appearances against them at AAMI Park as well as adding one assist. Overall, he has recorded five goal involvements in his last six outings on home soil (three goals, two assists).
Kosta Barbarouses has shouldered the goalscoring burden for Wellington this term, with his 13 goals more than twice as many as their next-most prolific player (Bozhidar Kraev with six).
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However, he has failed to provide a goal involvement in his last five A-League games against Victory, lasting scoring past them in January 2017. He does enter the finals having scored in his last two games, though.
Should he fire the Phoenix to a first-leg advantage, it would represent a landmark result for a team that has experienced 12 years of woe in the finals.
Wellington have lost their last six finals games overall, with their last postseason triumph coming all the way back in March 2012, a 3-2 victory over Sydney.
A fine regular-season showing should give them hope of halting that miserable run, but the data suggests we’re in for a fiercely competitive tie between two well-matched sides.
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