Central Coast Mariners lost their head coach and several key stars after claiming the Isuzu UTE Championship. But… have they actually gotten better since? This is what Opta data says.
It is seemingly a two-horse race for the Premiership in the Isuzu UTE A-League this season, with Wellington Phoenix and Central Coast Mariners separated by just three points at the top heading into Round 20.
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While Wellington finished sixth in the regular season last term, the Mariners placed second, and subsequently went on to win their second title, thrashing defending Premiers Melbourne City 6-1 in the Grand Final.
Nick Montgomery’s efforts resulted in Scottish side Hibernian coming in for the former Sheffield United stalwart, and so the Mariners turned to former Milton Keynes Dons boss Mark Jackson in September.
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And ahead of the run-in, it is certainly a case of so far, so good for Jackson. After a dismal start, with Central Coast losing their first four league matches, the Mariners have since suffered just one defeat in the competition, which came last month against Sydney FC, while they also have also progressed to the inter-zone semi-finals of the AFC Cup.
But, what has Jackson done differently since he took charge? Has he changed much, or simply looked to build on the solid foundations from the Montgomery era?
Let’s use Opta data to find out.
Less possession, but tighter at the back
Central Coast have averaged 46% possession this season, lower than the 2022-23 campaign (52%). Indeed, they have attempted 31.3 fewer passes per game this term compared to last, though their passing accuracy has been maintained – 81.8% in 2023-24, 81.5% in 2022-23. Indeed, they rank 11th out of 12 teams for total passes, with 8,380.
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Yet while seeing less of the ball, the Mariners have impressively tightened up defensively. They now face fewer shots per game (11.7 down from 13.6) and face fewer shots on target per game (3.8, down from 4.7).
Only Wellington (21) have conceded fewer goals than the Mariners (22) this season, while Jackson’s team have by far the best-performing defence when it comes to expected goals against (xGA) – their total of 22.97 is almost four less than second-best Melbourne Victory (26.35).
Central Coast concede 1.14 xGA per game – that is way down from 1.53 per match last term.
Jackson also has his team pressing slightly higher, with the Mariners averaging 8.5 high turnovers compared to 7.9 last season, while they are winning possession back in the final third 4.8 times per match – that is exactly the same figure as in 2022-23.
This defensive solidity has, however, come at something of a cost: the Mariners have dropped ever so slightly – from 2.2 to 1.8 – for goals scored per match, while their average xG has gone down from 2.0 to 1.7.
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While they average the same amount of big chances (defined as an opportunity from which a player would reasonably be expected to score) – 3.0 – Central Coast’s conversion rate from those opportunities has dropped from 44.8% to 40.7%.
They have mustered 14.2 shots per game, down from 15.7, with their attempts on target also dipping, from 6.4 to 5.5. The Mariners are also getting into the opposition penalty area less, with their penalty area entries dropping from 30.4 to 25.6 per game – their 512 penalty area entries ranks 11th.
Their xG of 33.8 fares slightly better, ranked sixth in league, with their tally of 35 goals ranking fourth. They are seventh for shots (284), and sixth for shooting accuracy (50.2%) – their shot conversion rate of 12.3% is fourth.
So as opposed to their attacking play it is the Mariners’ desire to defend that has stood out the most under Jackson.
He has instilled a gritty determination, emphasised by Central Coast having dropped just four points from a winning position this term – fewer than any other A-League team.
They have faced fewer shots (233) than any other team, while making the most tackles (385) and interceptions (221). Impressively, they have done this while conceding fewer fouls per game (10.5 from 11.3) than they did last season.
The replacements
Jason Cummings spearheaded the Mariners’ attack last season, scoring 20 goals – from 20.3 xG and 106 shots – and providing seven assists. He broke the record for league goals scored by a Mariner in a single season.
Cummings departed for Mohun Bagan SG in the off-season, while Central Coast’s other two primary attackers – Marco Tulio (10 goals, four assists, 51 chances created) and Sam Silvera (eight goals, five assists, 41 chances created) – also left for pastures new since the end of last term.
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Yet while the attacking metrics have dropped off slightly, Jackson has managed to steer the ship from potentially choppy waters, and Angel Torres has been crucial.
Torres is the Mariners’ top scorer with 11 goals in 18 Isuzu UTE A-League games.
The Colombian is outperforming his 6.0 xG by five – his finishing this season has been exceptional, with the 23-year-old converting several opportunities from which he would not have been anticipated to score.
Alou Kuol – whose younger brother Garang has joined Newcastle United – is behind Torres with four goals, while Joshua Nisbet has had a hugely impressive campaign. The midfielder has created 42 opportunities, providing six assists from 20 matches.
The full picture
It has been a case of subtle differences for Jackson, who has managed to improve the Mariners’ defensive performance while employing a less possession-oriented style.
Heading into the run-in, and the Finals Series, the worry would be if Torres were to suffer an injury that kept him out of action for any sustained period of time, would Central Coast have the firepower to go on and defend their crown?
Yet as it stands, Jackson has taken on the mantle from his predecessor in style – if he can find a way to drag up the attacking metrics in the closing weeks of the campaign, the Mariners are in with more than a fighting chance.
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