When Brisbane Roar and Melbourne City met at AAMI Park in mid-January, it was billed as a Finals Series preview.
The Roar had won more games than any other team in the Ninja A-League through 11 rounds and were just one point behind league leaders City as they travelled to AAMI Park, intent on taking top spot and building momentum heading into the second half of the season.
But no one could have predicted what happened next.
City beat Brisbane 2-0 to carve out a four-point gap at the top of the table, and while City have gone from strength to strength ever since, Brisbane’s season has spiralled out of control.
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With just one game left to play in the season, the Roar are outside the top six staring in, with their hopes of reaching the Finals Series officially dashed.
Brisbane’s 2024-25 campaign is a tale of two halves, and as it drags towards its conclusion off the back of six consecutive losses, two questions must be posed: what went wrong, and what could have been?
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Brisbane’s Jekyll and Hyde campaign
After an opening round defeat, Brisbane Roar went from strength to strength and by Round 11, had surged into early Premiership contention.
With seven wins from 10 games, the Roar had notched the most wins of any team in the league, but it wasn’t just their ability to win that was turning heads, it was the way they were winning games.
Alex Smith’s Roar were free-scoring and devastating in attack. They scored 30 goals through their first 10 games at an average of three goals per game – a run highlighted by a 6-1 win over Newcastle Jets, and an 8-2 win over Western United – two results notched within a week of one another.
Brisbane had more goals (30) and wins (seven) than any team in the league, and had conceded just 11 goals. Only Wellington Phoenix had conceded less (10). Smith’s Roar had also kept four clean sheets through their first 10 games; only Adelaide (five) had kept more.
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The 2-0 defeat to City on January 11 was the catalyst for Brisbane’s capitulation.
Having won seven of their first 10 games, they have won just one of 12 games since – with their nine defeats in that time the equal-most in the league along with Western Sydney Wanderers and the Jets, who sit bottom and second-bottom on the table respectively.
From Round 11 to 22, Brisbane tumbled from second to seventh on the Ninja A-League table off the back of nine losses, two draws and just one win in 12 games.
The statistical comparison paints a grim picture for the Roar.
From Rounds 1-10 Brisbane scored 30 goals and boasted a goals-per-game ratio of three. From Rounds 11 to 22, they’ve scored just 16 goals at an average of 1.33 per game.
Defensively, Brisbane have conceded 29 goals in their last 12 games. Only Newcastle Jets have conceded more (31). The Roar have added just two more clean sheets to their total of six for the season in that time.
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| Brisbane Roar 2024-25 season | ||
| Season split | Rounds 1-10 | Rounds 11-22 |
| Games played | 10 | 12 |
| Wins | 7 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 9 |
| Draws | 0 | 2 |
| League form | 2nd | 12th |
| Points | 21 | 5 |
| Points per game | 2.1 | 0.41 |
| Goals scored | 30 | 16 |
| Goals per game | 3 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded | 11 | 29 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 |
What went wrong?
A combination of key injuries and a lack of Plan B, according to A-Leagues commentator Teo Pellizzeri and Sydney FC legend Teresa Polias, who dissected Brisbane’s mid-season implosion on this week’s episode of Dub Zone.
Brisbane lost Matildas star Sharn Freier to an ankle injury against Perth Glory in late January and hasn’t returned in the nine games since; Freier had notched two goals and four assists in her 11 games for the Roar in 2024-25 prior to her injury and the Matildas winger’s absence has been reflected in a reduction in Brisbane’s final-third production.
Midfielder Momo Hayashi suffered an ankle injury of her own in January and missed five rounds as a result; Hayashi has bagged five goals from central midfield in a breakout debut Ninja A- League campaign and has been sorely missed when absent from the squad this season.
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Pellizzeri highlighted the mid-season absence of both Hayashi and Sharn Freier as key moments in Brisbane’s collapse.
“Before Sharn Freier’s injury they had her 1.9 points per game, which is exactly what Adelaide have collected this season,” Pellizerri said.
“So the pace of a third-place team, a title contender. Without Sharn Freier, 0.45 points per game, which is well under wooden spoon pace.
“Hayashi has played a lot more games (than Freier) because Sharn’s season-ending injury ruled her out. Momo came back.
“They (Brisbane) are +17 goal difference when Momo is on the field, and often the late fade-outs tend to coincide with her being subbed out of the game.”
“They didn’t deal with the loss of Sharn Freier – and their season imploded,” Polias added.
“It must be one of the worst crumblings we’ve seen a team go through in a season. That that confidence just waned, and each loss just hit them and hit them even harder. I know they showed a lot of fight against the Wanderers, but it was just too little, too late.”
In March, American import Olivia Sekany returned to her parent club Racing Louisville in the United States after making 17 appearances for the Roar; Brisbane kept six of their seven clean sheets this season with Sekany in goal.
The 26-year-old’s last appearance for the Roar came on March 2 when a left leg injury led to her early substitution in a 3-2 loss to Sydney FC.
Keeley Richards replaced Sekany off the bench in that game and was promoted to the club’s first-choice goalkeeping option following Sekany’s departure.
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Meanwhile, Sekany’s fellow international recruits Danelle Tan and Evi Popadinova have failed to make the required impact in attack throughout the 2024-25 season.
Bulgarian forward Popadinova has scored just one goal in 1069 minutes of football this season while Tan, a Singaporean international, has managed just 45 match minutes across three appearances, scoring zero goals.
“Did they persist with Plan A a bit too long?” Pellizzeri pondered.
“Evi Popadinova has ended up playing 1068 minutes and hasn’t scored since the 50th minute of the season. She’s gone more than 1000 minutes without a goal in the A-League Women.
“You compare that to Danelle Tan, who’s played less than half a game, and Tanaye Morris, who’s played less than the equivalent of two games, albeit getting a couple of cameo appearances. Did they mix it up enough to try and find a winning formula?
“They probably learned that they didn’t,” Polias replied. “I think when you’ve got a foreign player you’re a bit stubborn, you’ve invested a lot in them, and you want them to come through in a positive way, and it just didn’t work. And I think that’s something that Alex Smith learnt this season.”
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