Ahead of the final round of the Isuzu UTE A-League regular season, we use Opta data to analyse a hotly-contested Golden Boot race – which could still see a last minute twist.
Adam Taggart, Bruno Fornaroli and Apostolos Stamatelopoulos are enjoying wonderful campaigns.
Between them, the trio have netted 53 goals in the Isuzu UTE A-League. Perth Glory star Taggart leads the way with 19; Melbourne Victory’s veteran campaigner Fornaroli has bagged 18; Stamatelopoulos, Newcastle Jets’ new kid on the block, has made a name for himself this term with 16 goals.
But what does the data say about how the trio’s efforts compare to the top performers from seasons gone by?
| Player | Team | Goals | Games Played | Expected Goals | Mins/Goal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Taggart | Perth Glory | 19 | 24 | 17.08 | 110.63 |
| Bruno Fornaroli | Melbourne Victory | 18 | 20 | 15.45 | 98.11 |
| Apostolos Stamatelopoulos | Newcastle Jets | 16 | 24 | 15.58 | 126.94 |
Last term, Jamie Maclaren led the way, scoring 24 goals in 29 games for Melbourne City. The 30-year-old has not been able to match those levels this season, netting just nine times in 26 matches.
Next came Jason Cummings, who netted 20 for Central Coast Mariners. Behind him, Craig Goodwin and Oskar Zawada, on 15 each for Adelaide United and Wellington Phoenix respectively.
It is, then, highly unlikely that either Taggart or Stamatelopoulos – neither of whom will be featuring in the Finals – match or better last season’s leading scorer, though 36-year-old Fornaroli could still have a shot.
Victory end their regular season against Western Sydney Wanderers, though they are guaranteed at least one more game – they will take place in the elimination matches, with the prize a two-legged Semi-Final. Should Victory go all the way, then Fornaroli will no doubt be crucial, and it would also mean he has a total of five games to do the business.
This season’s top three scorers also lead the way for expected goals (xG). Taggart is top, with 17.08, ahead of Stamatelopoulos’ 15.58 and Fornaroli’s 15.45.
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While Taggart and Fornaroli are both overperforming by around two goals compared to the quality of chances they have been presented with, Stamatelopoulos is around about on track, with a nominal negative differential of -0.42.
| Season | Players with 15+ goals |
| 2023-2024 | 3 |
| 2019-2020 | 3 |
| 2015-2016 | 3 |
| 2016-2017 | 3 |
| 2012-2013 | 2 |
| 2022-2023 | 2 |
| 2011-2012 | 2 |
| 2018-2019 | 2 |
| 2017-2018 | 1 |
| 2010-2011 | 1 |
| 2021-2022 | 1 |
| 2013-2014 | 1 |
| 2009-2010 | 1 |
| 2014-2015 | 1 |
| 2020-2021 | 1 |
All of those xG totals are down from the tally of 26.21 mustered by Maclaren last season, while the City star also had an impressive 23.53% shot conversion rate from 106 attempts.
This season, Taggart has already had 118 shots, which is 36 more than Stamatelopoulos (82) and 38 more than Fornaroli (80). His conversion rate of 20%, though, is noticeably lower than Maclaren’s from last season.
Let’s expand this out over other previous campaigns, though.
Since Opta data collection began, the 2023-24 A-League campaign is just the fourth season in which three players have netted more than 15 goals, along with 2019-20, 2016-17 and 2015-16.
Fornaroli was also involved in two of those previous three-way Golden Boot races, outdoing Maclaren and Besart Berisha with 25 goals in 2015-16, then finishing behind that same duo with 17 goals in 2016-17. In 2019-20, it was Adam Le Fondre rivalling Maclaren and Berisha.
While it’s rare to see three players being quite so prolific within the same campaign, it’s rarer still to see all three players shouldering such a huge share of attacking responsibility for their respective teams.
Indeed, Fornaroli has scored 45% of the Victory’s 40 goals this season, while Taggart and Stamatelopoulos are both responsible for 42% of their teams’ respective outputs.
Since Opta data collection began, only four players have ever scored more than 45% of their team’s goals within a single A-League season, and all three of this term’s Golden Boot contenders rank among the top-11 campaigns by that measure.
Two Wellington Phoenix players can claim to have carried their team the most, with Shane Smeltz netting 52% of their goals in 2008-09 and Jeremy Brockie doing likewise in 2012-23.
Smeltz also scored 49% of Gold Coast United’s goals in 2009-10, while Taggart previously contributed 47% of the Jets’ tally in 2013-14, during his two-year stint in New South Wales.
| Player | Team | Season | Goals | Team Goals | % Team Goals |
| Shane Smeltz | Wellington Phoenix | 2008-2009 | 12 | 23 | 52% |
| Jeremy Brockie | Wellington Phoenix | 2012-2013 | 16 | 31 | 52% |
| Shane Smeltz | Gold Coast United | 2009-2010 | 19 | 39 | 49% |
| Adam Taggart | Newcastle Jets | 2013-2014 | 16 | 34 | 47% |
| Jamie Maclaren | Brisbane Roar | 2016-2017 | 20 | 44 | 45% |
| Joel Griffiths | Newcastle Jets | 2007-2008 | 14 | 31 | 45% |
| Jamie Maclaren | Melbourne City | 2019-2020 | 23 | 51 | 45% |
| Bruno Fornaroli | Melbourne Victory | 2023-2024 | 18 | 40 | 45% |
| Besart Berisha | Melbourne Victory | 2015-2016 | 18 | 41 | 44% |
| Adam Taggart | Perth Glory | 2023-2024 | 19 | 45 | 42% |
| Apostolos Stamatelopoulos | Newcastle Jets | 2023-2024 | 16 | 38 | 42% |
None of Taggart, Stamatelopoulos or Fornaroli – barring an incredible Finals campaign from the latter – look likely to get near Bobo’s single-season A-League goal record from 2017-18, when he netted 27 times for Sydney FC.
However, each of the trio can certainly claim to have enjoyed outstanding individual campaigns.
Given the Glory’s struggles at the foot of the table, Taggart may claim his accomplishments have been most impressive, particularly if he manages to surpass the 20-goal mark in Perth’s regular-season finale against Sydney on Sunday.
Taggart’s goals have only been worth seven points to his team, but with Alen Stajcic’s team conceding a huge 62 goals this term, he could argue the blame lies elsewhere.
Taggart has also offered more than Stamatelopoulos and Fornaroli on the creative side, laying on three assists to their two apiece.
He also leads his Golden Boot rivals for chances created (28) and expected assists (2.3 xA), while none of his 19 goals have come from the penalty spot – both Fornaroli and Stamatelopoulos have converted four spot-kicks each.
| Player | Adam Taggart | Bruno Fornaroli | Apostolos Stamatelopoulos |
| Games Played | 24 | 20 | 24 |
| Goals | 19 | 18 | 16 |
| Expected Goals | 17.1 | 15.5 | 15.6 |
| Total Shots | 118 | 80 | 82 |
| Shot Conversion Rate (%) | 16 | 23 | 20 |
| Shots on Target | 47 | 30 | 34 |
| Big Chance Total | 29 | 23 | 34 |
| Big Chance Scored | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| Big Chance Conversion % | 41 | 48 | 41 |
| Team Competition Points From Goals | 7 | 16 | 10 |
Fornaroli, meanwhile, leads this season’s star trio for big chance conversion rate, at 48%. Perhaps it is his experience shining through, but he stays calm and collected in the crucial moments.
Stamatelopoulos, meanwhile, has been presented with 34 big chances – more than either Taggart or Fornaroli – though he has only put away 14 of them (41%).
But how important have each of these players been to their own teams when it comes actually gaining points?
Fornaroli’s goals have directly corresponded to the Victory winning 16 points. Stamatelopoulos’s goals, meanwhile, have earned the Jets 10 points. Taggart’s tally, however, has correlated to only seven points for lowly Perth.
But as it stands, the Glory are at least set to come away with a Golden Boot winner, given the award is handed out to the regular-season’s top goalscorer, even if Fornaroli is more likely to ultimately be the leading overall scorer when factoring in the Finals Series.
