A tantalising race for the Liberty A-League Premiership is heating up. Western United lead the way – but who will come out on top at the end of the regular season? We look at who is in the box seat for finals football using Opta data.
Kat Smith’s Western are a point clear of Melbourne City at the summit, though Sydney FC – who have won the last three Premiership trophies – are just two behind the leaders with a game in hand.
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Melbourne Victory and Central Coast Mariners, the latter returning to the competition for the first time since 2009, should not be counted out either as the pair trail Western by just four and five points respectively.
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In a mid-table tangle, Newcastle Jets, Western Sydney Wanderers and Perth Glory all boast 24 points as that trio battle for sixth place, though Wellington Phoenix – in ninth – are just two behind those top-six chasers.
With the A-League Women expanding to 12 teams and a 22-match home-and-away regular season only three rounds from its conclusion, there is still plenty to play for.
If judging solely on league position, then Western would be considered favourites for the Premiership, with United having the Jets, Sydney and the Mariners left to face. However, their form against top-half opposition could be a concern – Smith’s team have only managed 13 points from eight games against top-half teams this campaign.
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That averages at 1.63 points-per-game in such scenarios, a figure bettered by Melbourne City (1.88), the Wanderers (1.73) and Sydney (1.67). There is still hope for Western, though, when taking into account the underlying data from their last five games.
Only the Victory (16) can better Western’s 13 goals since the beginning of February, with those strikes coming from an expected goals (xG) of 12, suggesting the league leaders are not overperforming by much.
Hannah Keane has been the Western star in that February to March period with five goals in as many games, while Grace Maher and Chloe Logarzo have created an impressive 10 chances each in the same period – but can the leaders hold on?
Melbourne City have rivals Victory, the Mariners and the Glory left to play, and will fancy their chances at sneaking the Premiership.
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Dario Vidosic’s team have managed 15 points from just eight matches against top-half teams, bettered only by the Wanderers’ 19 and the Glory’s 16 from 11 such outings, and could pip Western to the title if they find their shooting boots.
Since the start of February, City have scored just four goals in five matches from an xG total of 8.02 – their 4.02 negative differential between goals scored and xG accumulated the biggest among A-League teams over that timeframe.
That underlying data suggests City could trend upwards however, and Vidosic may be pointing his players to watch the Victory’s Emily Gielnik, who has managed six goals from 2.42 xG – her 3.58 differential the most since last month.
Although City – who have had 45 sequences of 10+ passes since the start of February, 19 more than any other team – are well in the hunt to snatch a third Premiership in their history, Sydney could still have a say in the race.
Before the end of the regular season, Sydney face Wellington, strugglers Adelaide United and the Victory – while they also have their suspended fixture against Canberra United to come. They have conceded just two goals in their last five matches, from an expected goals against (xGA) of 2.53.
Sydney’s Jada Whyman has been in inspired form, saving 86% of the shots on target she has faced across that period – a mark that cannot be bettered by another goalkeeper to play in all five games since the start of last month. Cortnee Vine, who scored twice as Sydney downed leaders Western 3-1 at the weekend, has four goals in her last five appearances as well. With that duo in such form, and that rearranged fixture against Canberra, Juric’s three-time Premiership winners could yet seal a fourth such title.
Only Western (21) come close to matching Sydney’s tally of 25 big chances since the start of February.
The Victory are also in close company, but their underlying numbers suggest a dip in form when they wrap up their regular season by facing City, the Jets and Sydney – which could turn out to be a winner-takes-all meeting for the title.
Jeff Hopkins’ team may be the top scorers with 16 since the start of February, but they also boast the worst differential between goals scored and xG (-5.7), which would indicate either superior finishing ability from the likes of Gielnik or a downturn in form to come.
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As the aforementioned quartet battle for the regular-season crown, with the Victory’s dazzling attack and Sydney’s stubborn defence set to prove vital, the four-horse race will play out in the background for a spot in the top six.
The Jets are the team most in danger of dropping out of that contest, having only managed six points from eight A-League games against the top half – a concerning sign considering they face Western and the Victory in their next two.
Newcastle have had 99 shots in their last five games, but have accumulated only 8.11 xG (an average of just 0.08 per attempt) – they are having plenty of shots, but they have a low probability of finding the net.
Though Wellington only average 0.64 points-per-game in clashes with top-half sides, the Phoenix could snatch sixth spot given they meet Canberra United and Adelaide in their last two.
Wellington appear somewhat hard done by in recent weeks, too, conceding 12 goals from just 7.0 xGA. Based on the quality of chances offered to the opposition, they have been unfortunate, and they should fancy a top-six finish if they can transform those underlying numbers into results.
Otherwise, a two-team shootout awaits between the Glory and Western Sydney, the latter appearing as the favourites. The Wanderers have a game in hand over their fellow competitors and, therefore, it is their place to lose.
Perth have also faced 115 shots since the beginning of February, 33 more than any other team in that time, though the Glory have been stronger offensively, scoring eight goals in that time from 11.15 xG.
Western Sydney have struggling Canberra at home next, as well as a final-day clash with the Phoenix, and they have taken the most points from top-half teams out of any side this term as well – but can the Wanderers edge into that much-desired post-season position?
Strap in, as the A-League Women’s regular-season finale awaits…
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