The race for the final spots inside the Isuzu UTE A-League top six is reaching fever pitch heading into the final fortnight of the regular season. KEEPUP takes a look at each team’s run home.
Four down, two to go.
The top six is starting to shape heading into the final couple of weeks in the Isuzu UTE A-League regular season.
An enthralling Round 24 saw a Premiership three-peat coronation for Melbourne City, Central Coast Mariners and Western Sydney Wanderers lock in finals berths and Melbourne Victory be the first team to be mathematically eliminated from finals contention.
Now, with only 12 regular season matches remaining in total, the race is on for the remaining two positions, all-important finals seeding and the final spot in Asia.
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What’s at stake
(This is what is mathematically in play for all 12 teams, Asterix = finals secured)
PREMIERS: Melbourne City*
TOP TWO RACE: Adelaide United*, Central Coast Mariners*, Western Sydney Wanderers*
HOME ELIMINATION FINAL: Central Coast Mariners, Western Sydney Wanderers, Wellington Phoenix, Sydney FC
TOP SIX BERTH: Wellington Phoenix, Sydney FC, Newcastle Jets, Western United, Perth Glory, Brisbane Roar, Macarthur FC
ELIMINATED: Melbourne Victory
AFC EXPLAINER: How Australia’s spots in Asia are determined this season
KEEPUP assesses the run home for each of the 12 sides
THE RUN HOME
1. Melbourne City
- Games played: 24
- Points: 49 (14 wins, 7 draws, 3 losses)
- Goal difference: +26
Melbourne City made history over the weekend, securing the first-ever Isuzu UTE A-League Premiership three-peat.
Despite their stalemate with Central Coast Mariners, City wrapped up the Premier’s Plate following Adelaide United’s loss to Western United the next night. The draw in Gosford also saw them win the A-Leagues Club Championship for the second straight year.
Now, heading into the final two games, City can begin gearing up for the finals where they will chase a first-ever A-League Men treble (Premiership, Championship, Club Championship), without the worry of losing top spot and may be tempted to rest any sore bodies in the final fortnight.
However, they can still shape the finals race significantly, with a Grand Final rematch against a desperate Western United to come this weekend and fourth-place Western Sydney Wanderers in the last round.
City striker Jamie Maclaren will also be chasing his own slice of history as he sits two goals off equalling Besart Berisha atop the all-time A-League Men scorers list.
The run home: Western United (A), Western Sydney Wanderers (H)
2. Adelaide United
- Games played: 24
- Points: 41 (11 wins, 8 draws, 5 losses)
- Goal difference: +10
Adelaide’s focus now turns to locking in a top-two spot, after their Premiership hopes came to an end last weekend.
The Reds’ 12 game unbeaten run came to an end courtesy of a 1-0 loss against Western United, and with both Central Coast and Western Sydney getting points, their position inside the top two is now under threat.
However, their goal difference is well clear of both the Mariners and Wanderers, meaning a win against Perth Glory on Sunday should be enough to wrap up second place and by the same token – an AFC Cup berth.
Beating the Glory will be no walk in the park either, given how strong they have been on their home deck this season and the fact they simply need to win to stay in the finals race.
Should Perth get something from the clash at HBF Park – coupled with the Mariners getting a win over Newcastle – it could set up a huge final round contest with Central Coast at Coopers Stadium for second spot.
The run home: Perth Glory (A), Central Coast Mariners (H)
3. Central Coast Mariners
- Games played: 24
- Points: 38 (11 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses)
- Goal difference: +15
Central Coast Mariners closed the gap to three points behind Adelaide United after snaring a point against league leaders Melbourne City on the weekend.
Nick Montgomery’s side are now unbeaten in three since the international break, which has put them in pole position to at least secure a home elimination final in the first week of finals.
A draw in either of their last two games will ensure that comes to fruition.
The Mariners do, however, head on the road for their next two games against Newcastle Jets in the F3 Derby and Adelaide to wrap up the regular season.
A top two spot is still firmly in play, particularly if they can beat their finals chasing rivals on Saturday evening and set up a huge final round clash with the Reds.
The run home: Newcastle Jets (A), Adelaide United (A)
4. Western Sydney Wanderers
- Games played: 24
- Points: 38 (10 wins, 8 draws, 6 losses)
- Goal difference: +13
After two games without a win, the Western Sydney Wanderers roared back into winning form over the weekend.
A 2-1 win over Melbourne Victory ensured the Wanderers would play finals for the first time since 2017, completing an incredible turnaround this season after many years on the outside looking into the top six.
Similarly to the Mariners, a draw will lock in – at worst – a home elimination final, but a win over fifth-placed Wellington Phoenix keeps themselves right in the hunt for a top two spot.
The Wanderers, however, need a bit of help to get there with the Mariners vs Adelaide final round game providing a bit of a wrinkle to their top-two hopes.
Marko Rudan’s side will have to essentially win both of their last two games against Wellington and City, while hoping both Perth and Newcastle can take points off Adelaide and the Mariners respectively this weekend.
Then, a draw in the final round between the latter two sides will be their easiest path, should the Wanderers win out.
Meanwhile, the entire trailing pack will be hoping they can knock off Wellington in order to keep the sides outside the top six’s finals hopes alive for at least another week.
The run home: Wellington Phoenix (H), Melbourne City (A)
5. Wellington Phoenix
- Games played: 24
- Points: 32 (8 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses)
- Goal difference: -3
Four games without a win and the pressure is building on Wellington.
The ‘Nix were minutes away from ending their winless run against Brisbane Roar, until Scott Neville popped up with a late equaliser to snatch a point.
A draw helped Wellington’s finals chances just a little bit, keeping their noses ahead of Sydney FC on goals scored and three points clear from Newcastle Jets and Western United who have inferior goal differences.
The stalemate did, however, all but end their hopes of a home elimination final.
35 points is seemingly the magic number for Wellington, with a win in either of the two remaining games against either Western Sydney or Macarthur on the road all but enough to wrap up a finals berth.
If they do get three points this Friday and neither Newcastle or Western get a win, it will wrap up a third finals berth in four seasons under Ufuk Talay, who departs at the conclusion of their campaign, to be replaced by Giancarlo Italiano.
The run home: Western Sydney Wanderers (A), Macarthur (A)
6. Sydney FC
- Games played: 24
- Points: 32 (9 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses)
- Goal difference: -3
Talk about a much needed win for the Sky Blues.
Sydney FC finally got back on the winners list with a stirring 4-1 win over Perth Glory, which ended their four-game run without a victory.
The big win also helped them close in on a finals berth, by creating a three point barrier on the trailing pack, coupled with a sizeable goal difference gap (+5) on the Jets.
Similarly to Wellington, 35 points is essentially the magic number for Steve Corica’s side.
They can now all but seal their fate with a win over Brisbane Roar at Suncorp Stadium on Monday night.
Three points and Newcastle plus Western dropping points will ensure they are in action come May.
And there’s every chance we could still see a Sydney Derby elimination final, if the Wanderers climb into third and the Sky Blues remain where they are, or conversely, the latter move into fifth and Marko Rudan’s side stay put on the standings.
The run home: Brisbane Roar (A), Newcastle Jets (H)
7. Newcastle Jets
- Games played: 24
- Points: 29 (8 wins, 5 draws, 11 losses)
- Goal difference: -8
They are still alive.
Newcastle ended a six-game winless run with a dramatic 2-1 win over Macarthur FC, which has kept them right in the mix for a finals berth heading into the last fortnight of the season.
The Jets, however, have to just keep on winning to keep the pressure on Wellington and Sydney FC. First up, it’s a home clash with rivals Central Coast on Saturday evening, before taking on the Sky Blues on the road in their final regular season game.
A win over the Mariners, coupled with Sydney dropping points against Brisbane will ostensibly set up a play-in game where the winner secures a finals berth.
However, they can also sneak in with Wellington dropping points against Western Sydney and Macarthur too.
The run home: Central Coast Mariners (H), Sydney FC (A)
8. Western United
- Games played: 24
- Points: 29 (8 wins, 5 draws, 11 losses)
- Goal difference: -12
You can’t quite count out the reigning champions yet.
Western United breathed life into their finals hopes with a stirring upset victory over Adelaide, which got them back within three points of Sydney and Wellington going into the final fortnight.
Similarly to the Jets, John Aloisi’s side must keep on winning to stay in the hunt, with premiers Melbourne City up first before a trip across the Nullarbor to face Perth Glory – which could also have plenty riding on it if Ruben Zadkovich’s side are still in the hunt.
United must also rely on help too, needing Wellington and Sydney to simply not get to 35 points – due to the latter two side’s having a much better goal difference.
The run home: Melbourne City (H), Perth Glory (A)
9. Perth Glory
- Games played: 24
- Points: 28 (7 wins, 7 draws, 10 losses)
- Goal difference: -9
It’s now or never for Perth Glory, who missed a glorious chance to climb into the top six last weekend.
Perth’s 4-1 defeat to Sydney FC was a sizeable blow to their finals hopes, as Ruben Zadkovich’s side now sit four points off the pace going into the final two rounds.
Glory now must win both of their last two games at home against Adelaide and an equally desperate Western United to stay in the hunt, and they would go in with confidence given they have only lost once in Western Australia this season.
However, they also need to hope for one of Wellington or Sydney FC falling shy of the 34 point marker, while neither Newcastle or Western United can win out too.
Failure to win this weekend will all but extinguish their hopes of finals football, while even a win against the Reds might not be enough to stay alive as Sydney and Wellington can still end their hopes if they both win too.
It’s not going to be easy, that’s for sure.
The run home: Adelaide United (H), Western United (H)
10. Brisbane Roar
- Games played: 24
- Points: 27 (6 wins, 9 draws, 9 losses)
- Goal difference: -6
Brisbane are still in the finals race, but only just, heading into the final two rounds.
A draw against Wellington Phoenix was enough to keep them mathematically alive, but it will take a Herculean effort for them to climb into the top six from here given how far back they are on the table.
Incredibly at one stage last Sunday, Brisbane were momentarily in the top six after Jay O’Shea fired them into the lead – showcasing just how important a win would have been – even if their match was played before Sydney FC took the field later that day and won.
Now, the rest of the trailing pack will become defacto Roar fans on Monday night, when they host Sydney FC at Suncorp Stadium as their finals hopes essentially reside in Brisbane’s hands.
A win for Brisbane themselves will keep them in the mix going into the final round against bottom-placed Melbourne Victory, as it would cut the deficit to only two points behind the Sky Blues.
And they will go in with confidence knowing they are still yet to lose at home under interim coach Nick Green. In fact, they have won all three matches.
The run home: Sydney FC (H), Melbourne Victory (A)
11. Macarthur FC
- Games played: 24
- Points: 26 (7 wins, 5 draws, 12 losses)
- Goal difference: -15
In the words of Dumb and Dumber‘s Lloyd Christmas: “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?!”
Macarthur’s finals hopes were all but extinguished last weekend when they lost 2-1 to Newcastle, which extended their winless run to five consecutive games – which in all five they either led or were in a position to get more points than they came away with (1-1 vs Newcastle).
The Bulls have to basically win out, make up a +12 goal difference and hope one of Sydney FC or Wellington lose both of their remaining games and heavily.
The run home: Melbourne Victory (A), Wellington Phoenix (H)
12. Melbourne Victory
- Games played: 24
- Points: 25 (7 wins, 4 draws, 13 losses)
- Goal difference: -5
Melbourne Victory became the first team to be eliminated from the finals race last weekend.
A loss to Western Sydney, coupled by Sydney’s win over Perth Glory and Wellington’s draw with Brisbane ensured Tony Popovic’s side would miss finals this season.
It’s been a difficult campaign for Victory, who came into the season a favourite among punters and pundits to come away with silverware after surging up the table to finish within a whisker of a Grand Final appearance.
Injuries, off-field distractions and inconsistent form have marred a season they would hope to put in the rearview mirror sooner rather than later.
Now, Victory will be looking to avoid a second wooden spoon in three years when they host Macarthur and Brisbane Roar in their last two games.
The run home: Macarthur (H), Brisbane Roar (H)
