Ernie Merrick coached in four grand finals, and is tipping Melbourne City to cut down the Mariners’ fairy tale
Whenever I’ve been involved in a Grand Final, I always sought to base my team around the holy trinity of experience, of goal scorers and of a reliable goalkeeper.
That’s still what I look for in the line-ups of the teams contesting the Grand Final each year because I think it gives you a pretty good indication of what the outcome might be. This year it’s particularly intriguing because of a couple of unknown factors.
BUY TICKETS TO THE GRAND FINAL
As a neutral I’m delighted to see the Mariners get to the very end of the season on the back of a brand of positive football that’s shaken things up on the league table. But equally no one could begrudge Melbourne City getting through either, as the most consistent team all season.
THE FORMATIONS
Both teams play on the front foot and this will be a battle of the attacks. City have a plethora of attacking options, and I think Rado Vidosic will stick with the formation he played in the second leg of the Semi Final against Sydney FC.
The 3-4-3 was a clever way of answering the question of which of the vaunted front four – Jamie Maclaren, Mathew Leckie, Marco Tilio and Andrew Nabbout – would have to miss out, by dint of making Leckie a wingback. The whole of Australia saw at the World Cup the prodigious work rate that epitomises Leckie’s performances, and that gives City both an extra attacking threat but also solidity to their structure; he can tuck in as required against the forward thrusts of Sammi Silvera for the Mariners.
On the other side of the City structure, Jordan Bos will make his final appearance before a richly deserved move to Europe. The wingback role particularly plays to his strengths and he is just as happy cutting inside as surging down the wing. The weight of numbers Bos creates when he comes inside sets a huge test for the discipline and defensive plan of the Mariners back four.
Nick Montgomery’s structure for the Central Coast will be 4-4-2, a formation that can be quite defensive – but not in the Mariners hands. The energy of the midfield and their wide players means they transition super quickly into a direct attacking style, but also – most of the time – can revert to an out-of-possession structure to nullify their opponents.
If you go hard at City they can be vulnerable, as Adelaide showed a few weeks ago, and this is where Marco Tulio will come into his own with the ability to unlock a defence at pace. Watch Aiden O’Neill track Tulio whenever the Mariners have the ball.
STRIKERS v GOALKEEPERS
At the head of the two attacks lie the A-League’s top scorers this season in Jamie Maclaren and Jason Cummings, and there’s a beautiful contrast in the penalty box awareness and pure finishing of Maclaren against the less predictable way Cummings can look to create as much as score himself. The key for both sides is to constrict the supply lines to their opposition’s figureheads, something that becomes progressively harder as the game goes on and the contest opens up.
No wonder the two goalkeepers, Tom Glover and Danny Vukovic, will be anticipating a busy night. Glover had a poor season last year but is back to top form, as the Semi Final showed; Vukovic meanwhile brings huge experience and very astute positional awareness.
He will be an important figure overall for the Mariners, as – to return to my opening theme – they have so much inexperience. All season they have made light of it, but this is a big game on a big stage. City’s players know it well, and were stung by the unexpected loss to Western United last year.
THE OUTCOME
Both head coaches are making their Grand Final bow as well, but in Rado Vidosic’s case only in the men’s game; he’s won it with City’s Liberty A-League side before and I’ve been impressed with the calm way he navigated the transition from Patrick Kisnorbo to himself mid-season.
Ultimately the Mariners have been a wonderful and much-needed fairy tale for the competition this year, and Nick Montgomery has drenched himself in credit for the team he has developed and the way he conducts himself.
But the sad reality of real life is that fairy tales rarely come true. City’s strength from setpieces via Curtis Good and their overall experience makes me think they’ll shade the contest and win the title.
As a neutral though, it’s the two best teams in a heavyweight contest – what more could you want?
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