Ahead of this Saturday’s Isuzu UTE A-League Grand Final, we use Opta data to examine both teams, their playing style, key men and how the game could play out.
After seven months, 168 matches and plenty of thrills and spills, the 2023-24 Isuzu UTE A-League campaign draws to a close with Saturday’s Grand Final between Central Coast Mariners and Melbourne Victory.
For the Mariners, the game offers a chance to clinch a historic treble, after they followed up last season’s title win by claiming the Premiers Plate and the AFC Cup this term.
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As if that wasn’t enough, Mark Jackson’s team have the chance to achieve that feat in front of a buoyant home crowd at Industree Group Stadium.
For the Victory, meanwhile, it represents a chance to pull level with Sydney FC with a record-equalling fifth A-League crown, and a first since 2018.
Ahead of the season’s showpiece game, we delve into the data to look at how both teams have played, what their underlying metrics say about their chances, and pick out a couple of standout performers.
Watch the Grand Final live on Network 10, 10Play & Paramount+ from 7:45pm AEST.
The Underlying Metrics
The Mariners finished the regular season 11 points clear of the third-placed Victory, scoring six goals more (49 to 43) and conceding six fewer (27 to 33) than their Grand Final opponents.
That may not tell the full story, however.
Including finals games, the Mariners have overperformed their expected goals (xG) figure of 45.5 – the league’s fifth highest – by 5.5 this season, netting 51 times. That is the largest overperformance recorded by any team.
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The Victory, meanwhile, rank third in the league with 50.2 xG but have only scored 46 times, with only Western United (-7) posting a larger negative differential than them (-4.2).
It’s fair to say, then, that the Mariners have been more clinical, and the Victory would be wise to avoid giving up too many chances on Saturday.
| Team | CCM | MVC |
| Games | 29 | 30 |
| Goals | 51 | 46 |
| Expected Goals | 45.5 | 50.2 |
| Total Shots | 389 | 509 |
| Shot Conversion Rate | 13% | 9% |
| High turnovers | 238 | 261 |
| Shot Ending High Turnovers | 40 | 43 |
| Goal Ending HIgh Turnovers | 4 | 5 |
| 10+ Pass OP Sequences | 224 | 303 |
| Passes per sequence | 3.3 | 3.4 |
The Mariners lead the Victory for big chances created (82 to 75) and overall shot conversion rate (13 per cent to nine per cent) and have also converted 41.5 per cent of their big scoring chances this season, the highest ratio of any A-League team. The Victory have the lowest rate, at 30.7 per cent.
While Central Coast have spread the goals around, Tony Popovic’s side have relied heavily on one standout performer at the other end.
The Mariners’ total of 33.46 expected goals against (xGA) is comfortably the lowest in the 2023-24 A-League, and they also overperformed those defensive figures by shipping just 28 goals.
They owe much to Danny Vukovic, who has been an ever present in goal and has, according to Opta’s expected goals on target (xGoT) model, prevented 8.36 goals (28 conceded from 36.36 xGoT faced).
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The Playing Styles
Though the Mariners arguably start as favourites, it may well be that the Victory look to force the issue.
Their 64 percent tackle success rate is the highest in the A-League this campaign, while they have also forced more high turnovers (261 to 238) and won possession in the final third (136 to 128) than the Mariners.
Both sides may be wary of being caught out in transition, given they are both extremely comfortable when sitting off and absorbing pressure.
Indeed, the Mariners and the Victory have each conceded just one goal this season when their opposition has played at least 10 passes in the build-up, the joint fewest in the Isuzu UTE A-League.
The Victory are more possession-oriented than the Mariners, averaging 51 per cent of the ball to their hosts’ 46 per cent and recording 303 sequences of 10 or more passes to Central Coast’s 224.
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However, the two teams are closely matched when it comes to the average number of passes per build-up sequence, the Victory recording 3.4 to the Mariners’ 3.3, suggesting we may see both adopt a considered approach on Saturday.
The Formations
Jackson has employed six different formations (4-2-3-1, 4-4-2, 4-3-3, 4-2-2-2, 3-4-3 and 5-4-1) throughout 2023-24 but has settled on a trusty 4-4-2 of late, using that system in their last six games and going unbeaten through that run (five wins, one draw).
He has used a 4-4-2 in 17 of 29 games this term, winning nine, drawing three and losing five.
Interestingly, he has only used that shape in seven of 16 matches against opponents using a 4-2-3-1, switching for three games against the Victory and earning five points from them.
Should we expect more tweaks this weekend, then?
The Victory have played a 4-2-3-1 formation in 25 of their 30 matches this campaign, with Tony Popovic never deviating from a four-man backline.
Popovic is not averse to switching things up in other ways, though, his 66 total lineup changes in 2023-24 dwarfing Jackson’s 48.
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The Standout Performers
One man who is certain to make the Victory lineup on Saturday is Bruno Fornaroli, who has 18 goals in 24 A-League appearances this season. He has attempted the third-most shots (95) and accrued the second-most xG (16.9) among all Isuzu UTE A-League players.
He is, however, goalless in his last six outings, and another failure to find the net on Saturday would equal the longest drought of his career.
Central Coast’s main threat could be Mikael Doka, who has two goals and three assists in his last six A-League matches, though he has never recorded a goal involvement in two previous appearances against Melbourne Victory.
Josh Nisbet will look to supply the Premiers’ creativity, with his nine A-League assists in 2023-24 ranking him second behind only Anthony Caceres (10). He has arguably benefitted from others’ good finishing, though, having overperformed his expected assists (xA) numbers by 5.6 – the second-biggest differential in the competition.
Could the Mariners’ bid for back-to-back crowns be frustrated by an old foe?
Victory winger Daniel Arzani, who ranks second in the league for dribbles per game in 2023-24 (5.7), has three goal involvements in his last five matches against Central Coast (one goal, two assists).
With neither team managing to keep a clean sheet in a head-to-head meeting since February 2017, neutrals will be hoping to see some of those attacking stars provide more fireworks to light up the Grand Final.
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