Remarkable things happen every time Western United face Melbourne City and the Vibes XI takes on their big-city rivals.
The newest rivalry in the A-League Women is only three games old but already it rocks.
Western United against Melbourne City has never failed to produce a fascinating contest. The numbers tell us that there is a good reason why – and what we can expect from these two teams this season.
17 December, 2022. Western United have already given the league several upsets in their inaugural season, and now face a stern test in cross-town rivals Melbourne City. The scores are level at half-time. A Hillary Beall penalty save and an outrageous Chloe Logarzo stunner later, it is the team in green that run out 3-1 victors.
11 February, 2023. Melbourne City are out for revenge. Leticia McKenna scores first, a tidy finish from the edge of the area. Western United hit back through Hannah Keane. An 86th minute penalty decides it – American defender Sydney Cummings makes no mistake, and leaves City fuming.
5 November, 2023. A new season. Western United’s win over Melbourne Victory had gone some way to dispel fears of second-season syndrome, but whispers still abounded. How would they perform against title favourites City this time around? They couldn’t do it again, could they?
“This is the most entertaining and perhaps the most heated rivalry in the A-League Women’s right now,” A-Leagues commentator Teo Pellizzeri claimed on DubZone on Sunday evening.
After a 2-2 draw filled with late drama and stunning goals, it is very difficult to argue otherwise.
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Fans packed into City Vista Recreation Reserve on Sunday afternoon ready for what promised to be the game of the season so far.
They knew it was going to be close. Western United had fallen to a shock loss against Perth Glory in round one, but came roaring back against Victory last time out. City, meanwhile, had a perfect record while playing an attractive brand of possession-based football.
Derbies are transient things. Yes, there are natural vectors for a rivalry – the most obvious being where you come from the same city – but it’s not a given. None of it matters if there isn’t any tangible feeling to show for it. This new Melbourne Derby, though, is absolutely not short on feeling.
If there is such a thing as inevitability in the A-League Women these past 12 months, it is defined by Hannah Keane. She was set up perfectly in the box by Japanese signing Kiewa Hieda – scorer of their dramatic late winner against Victory last week, and another talent plucked from NPLW Victoria’s Calder United – to open the scoring early for Western.
The home crowd lifted. They lifted again after Alyssa Dall’Oste, keeping her position in goals despite the signing of Hillary Beall earlier in the week, was forced into a double save – first keeping out Katelyn Torpey, then Rhianna Pollicina.
City kept knocking on the door. Pollicina was everywhere, as was Holly McNamara. Western kept resisting, until they couldn’t, and McNamara scored a stunner. She doubled her tally – and City’s – to make it 2-1, before Kahli Johnson announced herself to the competition with an unbelievable hit to make it level.
The home side had never shared the points in the A-League Women’s before. They thought they were going to keep the streak going when 16-year-old debutante Avaani Prakash found the back of the net in stoppage time. But what is a rivalry without late drama, and refereeing decisions that enrage parochial fans? The youngster was flagged for offside, the goal was chalked off, and the game ended in a 2-2 draw.
It was the kind of game that would convert neutrals to the league, and casuals to superfans. That passes the eye test – in-depth analytics aren’t needed to explain everything. But still, there is a hint in the stats about what makes this matchup in particular so enthralling.
Western: The A-League’s vibes XI
Western United are the ultimate vibes-based team in the A-League Women.
They built their success last season on defying expectations. During the first half last season, they scored 19 goals to an xG of 11.66. Despite finishing second on the regular season table, they had 50% or less possession in the majority of their games. In fact, against teams that finished in the top four, they never once dominated possession.
The first time that these teams played, Western United’s two goals from open play came from shots with xGs of 0.07 and 0.02 – meaning that, on average, they would be expected to be scored from 7 out of 100 times, and 2 out of 100 times respectively.
Outrageously, the penalty that Hillary Beall saved in that game had a post-shot xG of 0.99 – meaning that 99 times out of 100, Rhianna Pollicina’s penalty would have given City the lead. Against Western United, it did not.
These are numbers that suggest there is something intangible that happens with Western United, and it comes out in even greater force against Melbourne City – a team built to be precise, to win the numbers game, and to dominate.
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On Sunday, these numbers played true again. Melbourne City created more opportunities – they finished with 0.5 more xG, 64% possession, 17 shots to 9, and the run of the play. Yet, if not for a close offside call, they would have walked away with nothing to show for it again.
Kahli Johnson’s 86th minute equaliser continued the trend. Her shot’s xG was 0.05. 95 times out of 100, it sails harmlessly away. If there is any time for that to perfectly loop over Lysianne Proulx, for some unknowable reason, it is for Western United against Melbourne City.
It is this that makes Western United against Melbourne City box-office viewing whenever they play. Mark the calendar for January 28 when the instalment is due.
